The Footy Prophet is a program designed to simulate the likely outcomes of games in a home and away roster for different football codes for the purpose of predicting the probable position of each team in the final ladder. The program simulates random likely results for each unplayed game based on that game's specified percentage of a home win.
The result can be used to determine odds for:
Minor premiership, final 4, final 8 and wooden spoon.
The Footy Prophet also determines odds for novelty bets such as points handicap and last team standing.
The user must specify the percentage likelihood of a home team win for each game in the home and away roster. The system will base all simulated results on these figures until the actual results are entered.
This data is recorded in a separate data file which includes abbreviated 3-character codes for all the teams, the matches for each round and the results of all games already played. Unplayed results are recorded with zeros.
FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE FOOTY PROPHET
WHAT IS THE FOOTY PROPHET?
It is a computer simulation program designed to assist in the calculation of odds for football codes futures markets such as Premiership,Minor Premiers, Final 8, Wooden Spoon, etc. The program can also determine odds for the more innovative futures betting markets such as handicap, last team standing, final combinations and much more.
HOW DOES IT WORK?
After the user enters 'PRICES' for the individual games in a season the program uses a mathematical simulation technique to determine the probability of all the possible outcomes in a season.Effectively it plays out the season,over and over generating results true to the specified 'PRICES' and measures the results each time.The results are generated using a controlled-random algorithm so that if the user specifies that a game has a 50/50 outcome then the system will randomly generate half of the results with a win to the home team and half the results to the away team. In fact the system will also generate a small number of drawn results as well. Because the program simulates real results,important factors such as drawn games and ladder percentages are automatically factored into the outcome.
HOW ACCURATE IS IT?
The calculated odds are extremely accurate down to a fraction of a percent.Because it is necessary to introduce controlled random variation to simulate the results the outcomes will vary slightly each time.The simulation plays out the season 100,000 times(or more if you specify) Up to 100,000 simulations can be performed in a few minutes depending on the speed of your computer.
WHAT DOES IT MEAN TO 'PRICE' INDIVIDUAL GAMES?
Pricing an individual games means the user must specify the percentage probability of a home team win for each game (i.e. a number between 0 to 100 ) Where 0 means you are positive the home team will not win and 100 means you are positive the home team is guaranteed a win. For example consider Collingwood plays a home game against Carlton at the MCG. One person might think that is a very even game and therefore specify the home team win percentage as 50.Another person might think Collingwood should be favourites and specify a win percentage of 60 (therefore saying Carlton only has a 40% chance) Another opinion might think Carlton is a strong favourite and specify a home team percentage of 30 (meaning Carlton, the away team has a 70% chance of winning)
WILL EVERYONE GET THE SAME RESULTS?
Quite clearly the answer is No. Because each person will have a slightly different idea about pricing the individual games,therefore the results of the simulations will be different for each person.The person who is best able to accurately price the remaining games in the season will generate the most accurate futures markets.
HOW CAN I PRICE A GAME IN ROUND 22,AT THE START OF THE SEASON?
You don't have to know what the future price will be( no one else will know either)All you can do is price each game based on the information you have at this point in time.No one else has a crystal ball so you are really pricing every game with the information you have at your disposal right now as if the game was being played next week.After each result you may change your opinion of a particular team and therefore change the 'PRICES' for the teams remaining games. Game 'PRICES' may be adjusted at any stage during the course of the home and away season.
WHAT CAN THE PROGRAM OFFER ME?
For 'Bookmakers' this means the hours spent daily calculating for Premierships,Final 4,Final 8,etc,can be reduced to simply updating a data file and running a program for a few minutes.Markets can be done immediately after ANY game in the round if required,since the program will take into account all the results that are entered and only simulate the unplayed games.For 'Punters' it gives you a scientific method for spotting the best opportunities to invest in futures markets.It won't guarantee you'll make a fortune but it will make sure you don't waste money on bets that don't have a chance,and it will help you to find those that are over the odds.
WHO CURRENTLY USES THE PROGRAM?
The Footy Prophet program evolved as a crude simulation program written in 1995 by a computer science graduate trying to see if Collingwood had any chance of making the finals.Having discarded a rather arbitrary points scheme of awarding each game a win or loss,he decided to write a program to simulate real results to give a much more accurate picture.
In 1997 the program was distributed to over a dozen people as a trial,the users included a number of Sports Bookmakers and serious punters,all of whom had an overwhelming amount of praise for the program.The 2000 version of the program has been improved even more and its best advertisement is that everyone who used it in previous years has requested a copy this year!
If you would like a free trial of the program contact SPORTS PRICES INTERNATIONAL
Copies of the program can also be distributed via e-mail. All comments and suggestions are welcome.